Bern residents hoping for a snowy Christmas may be disappointed this year. Expert forecasts indicate a low probability of white flakes covering the Bundesplatz, with chances ranging from just 15 to 30 percent. Despite a drop in temperatures, a lack of sufficient moisture remains the primary barrier to significant snowfall across the region.
Key Takeaways
- White Christmas chances in Bern are low, estimated between 15% and 30%.
- Temperatures will drop, but humidity levels are insufficient for heavy snow.
- Lower and mid-altitude ski resorts face closures due to ongoing snow scarcity.
- Higher-altitude resorts like Jungfrau and Gstaad are partially open, relying on artificial snow.
Bern's Christmas Snow Outlook
The annual anticipation for a white Christmas in Bern often hinges on a delicate balance of cold and moisture. This year, while cooler air is on its way, the crucial element of humidity appears to be missing. This significantly reduces the likelihood of picturesque snowy scenes across the city.
SRF Meteo, a prominent weather service, defines a 'white Christmas' as having snow cover on at least one of the three festive days: December 24th, 25th, or 26th. Their current assessment places the probability for Bern's Bundesplatz at a modest 15 percent, suggesting an unlikely outcome.
Fact: Historically, Bern, situated at approximately 550 meters above sea level, experiences a white Christmas roughly once every four years on average.
Expert Perspectives on Snow Chances
Mario Rindlisbacher, head of weather forecasting at Meteotest AG in Bern, offers a slightly more optimistic, though still guarded, outlook. He estimates the chances for a lightly snow-dusted landscape at around 20 to 30 percent.
"The possibility for snow on one of the Christmas days still exists," Rindlisbacher stated. "Across all model runs, I would place the probability for a lightly sugared landscape at about 20 to 30 percent."
The large-scale weather pattern is becoming clearer. Next week, the air current is expected to shift to the northeast, bringing consistently cooler air into Switzerland, including Bern. However, two key uncertainties remain for forecasters: the speed and intensity of the temperature drop, and the amount of moisture that will accompany it.
Potential for Light Flurries
Some weather models, particularly the European model, suggest a scenario where temperatures near zero degrees could bring light snowfall during the Christmas period. This would likely result in only a "Schüümli," a light dusting, rather than substantial snow accumulation.
Even beyond Christmas, the outlook for the final week of the year does not indicate significant snowfall. According to Meteotest Bern, dry weather is largely expected to persist until the end of the year, albeit at lower temperatures.
Impact on Winter Sports Resorts
The lack of natural snow presents significant challenges for winter sports enthusiasts and resort operators. Unlike last year, when abundant snow covered even lower elevations, many ski areas in the lower to mid-altitudes of the Bernese Oberland and across the Swiss Alps are expected to remain largely closed.
This includes smaller ski areas, with only a few cross-country ski trails potentially open. Visitors planning to hit the slopes are strongly advised to check the individual websites of their chosen resorts for the latest operational updates.
Background on White Christmas Definition
For a Christmas to be classified as 'white' by SRF Meteo, snow must be present on the ground on either December 24th, 25th, or 26th. This requires a precise combination of both cold and humid air masses.
Higher Altitudes and Artificial Snow
For those seeking guaranteed snow, higher-altitude destinations offer better prospects. The lower temperatures expected next week will at least allow for increased artificial snow production. This benefits resorts situated at greater heights.
Some prominent destinations in the Jungfrau region, Gstaad, Adelboden-Lenk, and Hasliberg have partially opened their pistes. However, the extent of open terrain may vary, and checking their official websites remains crucial for up-to-date information on conditions and operational status.
The situation in elevated areas, such as 1000 meters above sea level in the Bernese Oberland or the Jura, mirrors that of Bern. Most natural snow in these regions has melted, except in shaded spots. Minimal precipitation is expected before Christmas, and mild conditions will continue until Sunday.
Mario Rindlisbacher noted that the likelihood of white Christmas in these higher regions is similar to Bern. The critical factor remains whether enough moisture will arrive to facilitate any snowfall.
Next week's forecast from Meteotest Bern includes Bise winds and somewhat denser cloud cover. While a few flakes over the Christmas days are not entirely ruled out, significant snowfall is not anticipated. Maximum temperatures in the Mittelland are expected to drop towards zero degrees as Christmas approaches.
The heavy snowfall experienced across the lowlands last year was statistically an exception in recent decades. Bern typically sees snow on at least one Christmas day only once every four years on average.