With just under six months remaining until the Canton of Bern holds its next parliamentary and government elections on March 29, 2026, political parties are intensifying their campaigns. Recent municipal election results, particularly from Köniz, and new polls from SRG and Tamedia, offer early indications of voter sentiment. These insights provide a basis for predicting how parties might perform in the upcoming cantonal vote.
Key Takeaways
- The Green Party aims to maintain its seats by increasing public dialogue.
- The Social Democratic Party (SP) expects gains, possibly expanding its representation.
- The Green Liberal Party (GLP) faces a continued downward trend but hopes to defend its current seats.
- The Centre party (Die Mitte) is stabilizing as a key centrist force.
- The FDP is predicted to lose seats, potentially to the SVP.
- The Swiss People's Party (SVP) is projected to be a clear winner, gaining more seats.
- The Evangelical People's Party (EVP) and Federal Democratic Union (EDU) are expected to hold their ground.
Green Party Focuses on Engagement and Environment
The Green Party experienced a slight decline in voter share in Köniz, losing over one percent. However, national polls present a mixed picture. The SRG survey indicates a minor national increase, while the Leewas poll for '20 Minuten' and Tamedia shows a minimal loss. Many observers anticipated further setbacks for the Greens after their performance in the 2023 national elections.
Despite these predictions, the party continues to resonate with voters on environmental issues. This focus remains a core strength for the Greens.
Brigitte Hilty Haller, Co-President of the Green Party Canton Bern, stated: "We must be visible on the streets and in the media. We need to show what we have achieved. More importantly, we must engage in stronger dialogue with the population and mobilize people to vote."
Bern News Today Projection: The Green Party is likely to retain most of its seats in the Grand Council. Any potential losses are expected to be minimal.
Social Democratic Party Aims for Growth
Projections for the Social Democratic Party (SP) vary between recent polls. Leewas forecasts a small loss in voter share for the SP. Conversely, the SRG survey suggests a slight increase in support for the party.
A notable performance was recorded in Köniz, where the SP significantly increased its vote share by over four percent. While such a large gain may not be replicated across the entire canton, the SP is showing momentum. The canton generally leans more conservative, which could temper overall gains. However, left-leaning parties are generally seeing a trend of increasing support across Switzerland.
SP's Köniz Performance
- Increased vote share by over 4% in Köniz.
- This local success provides a boost ahead of cantonal elections.
Manuela Kocher Hirt, President of the SP Canton Bern, emphasized: "We want to improve mobilization, connect with people, and clearly convey our messages. The SP stands for greater purchasing power, climate protection, equality, and equal opportunities."
Bern News Today Projection: The SP is expected to make slight gains, acting as a counterbalance to the SVP. They are likely to maintain or slightly increase their number of seats in parliament.
Green Liberal Party Faces Challenges
Recent polls present a challenging outlook for the Green Liberal Party (GLP). All newly published surveys indicate that the GLP is currently losing support. While the party is not facing a dramatic collapse, the downward trend observed after the 2023 national elections, which saw a loss of five seats, appears to be continuing.
For the GLP, simply defending its current 16 seats would be considered a success in the upcoming elections.
GLP's Recent Electoral History
The Green Liberal Party experienced a significant setback in the 2023 national elections, losing five seats. This decline has set a challenging precedent for their performance in subsequent cantonal elections.
Casimir von Arx, President of the GLP Canton Bern, commented: "If we had to change something drastically so close to the elections, it would mean we haven't done our homework. However, as a party, there is always room to improve how we communicate our ideas. We should make them known more boldly and clearly. This applies to health policy, for example, which we made an internal priority long before the latest increase in health insurance premiums."
Bern News Today Projection: The Green Liberals will likely avoid a major defeat in March. However, they should anticipate a loss of one to two seats.
The Centre Party Stabilizes
The Centre party, Die Mitte, has often been written off before elections, yet it rarely suffers significant losses. Although its new name did not provide the anticipated boost, national polls now show Die Mitte surpassing the FDP in voter support.
In Köniz, a municipality considered representative of the canton, Die Mitte saw a slight increase in its vote share. This indicates a stabilizing presence in the political landscape.
Die Mitte's Position
- National polls show Die Mitte ahead of the FDP.
- Slight gains observed in representative municipalities like Köniz.
André Roggli, Co-President of Die Mitte Canton Bern, stated: "The new Centre party is stabilizing as an important force between the political poles. It shows that a strong center holds the canton and Switzerland together and moves them forward."
Bern News Today Projection: Die Mitte is not expected to make large leaps. Both a loss and a gain of seats are possible. For the party, this stability in the reformed Canton of Bern is a notable achievement.
FDP Faces Potential Losses
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) lost two seats in the 2022 Grand Council elections. In Köniz, the party also holds one fewer seat in the local parliament. Nationally, as mentioned, the FDP has been overtaken by Die Mitte in recent polls.
A key challenge for the FDP, once a powerful force, is that other parties have already claimed important policy areas. Additionally, the party frequently faces issues with voter mobilization.
Sandra Hess, President of FDP.The Liberals Canton Bern, asserted: "The Bern FDP is well-positioned. We have highly motivated and capable individuals. The willingness to advocate for freedom, security, and personal responsibility is particularly high given the current global situation."
Bern News Today Projection: The FDP is facing difficulties. The Free Democrats should expect further seat losses, likely to the benefit of the SVP.
SVP Expected to Emerge as Clear Winner
The Swiss People's Party (SVP) is currently experiencing strong support. According to the SRG election barometer, almost one in three voters in Switzerland would choose the SVP. In Köniz, the party also saw substantial gains ten days ago.
The SVP benefits from momentum generated by its 10-million-Switzerland initiative. The topic of migration, a concern for many citizens, also plays into the party's hands. It is clear that the SVP is poised to be the decisive winner in the cantonal elections.
SVP's Current Strength
- Nearly one-third of Swiss voters support the SVP nationally.
- Strong performance in recent municipal elections.
- Key issues like migration and population growth boost support.
Manfred Bühler, President of the SVP Canton Bern, did not respond to Bern News Today's request for comment.
Bern News Today Projection: The SVP is strong and will gain more seats in the Grand Council. They can confidently look forward to March 29.
EVP and EDU Seek to Maintain Representation
The Evangelical People's Party (EVP) and the Federal Democratic Union (EDU) are two Christian parties that can rely on a loyal base of voters. The EVP is politically centrist, while the EDU is positioned further to the right.
In Köniz, their vote shares remained largely unchanged compared to previous elections. This indicates consistent support within their core constituencies.
Bern News Today Projection: The EDU currently holds 6 seats in the Grand Council, and the EVP holds 9. While both parties show a slight downward trend, they are likely to retain their seats.